Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition

This paper analyses changes in economic regional interlinkages in Europe over time and investigates the factors that could explain the dynamics of these changes. Our four main findings are the following: (i) we detect a significant surge in regional synchronisation after the Great Recession; (ii) we identify the regions most interrelated with the rest of Europe, namely, Ile de France, Inner London and Lombardia; (iii) we find that sectoral composition explains regional synchronisation in Europe, mainly after the Great Recession and (iv) we document that sectoral composition has important implications for aggregate economic fluctuations, in particular, that similarities in services-related sectors across regions explain a nonlinear relationship between sectoral composition and regional business cycle synchronisation. We also propose a new method to measure time-varying synchronisation in small samples that combines regime-switching models and dynamic model averaging.     

颠覆性创新四阶段扩散过程模型

基于颠覆性创新、创新扩散、创新模糊前端等相关理论，从全流程角度创新性地构建了颠覆性创新四阶段扩散过程模型，包括颠覆性创意产生、颠覆性创新产品开发、侵蚀非主流市场、占据主流市场4个阶段，各阶段之间相互关联、循环往复，并受到技术、市场、政策、竞争等外部环境因素影响。选取液晶电视机和山寨手机作为高端和低端两个颠覆性创新典型案例，通过对其进行验证性分析，构建具体的高端与低端颠覆性创新四阶段扩散过程模型。     

基于云模型的企业主流与新流创新绩效评价

基于不同企业创新战略而衍生的主流与新流创新特征，运用逻辑框架法思想，从创新投入、过程、产出和效益4个维度，构建出体现企业主流与新流创新特征的绩效评价指标体系，引入基于正态云的创新绩效评价模型以解决部分评价指标的模糊性和随机性问题。最后，以国内6家汽车企业为例，测算其以燃油动力为主的主流创新绩效和以新能源动力为主的新流创新绩效。实证分析结果表明，该评价指标体系和评价模型能有效衡量不同企业主流与新流创新绩效的差异，同时，测算两种创新对企业整体创新绩效的贡献。     

Leverage effect on stochastic volatility for option pricing in Hong Kong: A simulation and empirical study

This paper explores the importance of incorporating the financial leverage effect in the stochastic volatility models when pricing options. For the illustrative purpose, we first conduct the simulation experiment by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling method. We then make an empirical analysis by applying the volatility models to the real return data of the Hang Seng index during the period from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2017. Our results highlight the accuracy of the stochastic volatility models with leverage in option pricing when leverage is high. In addition, the leverage effect becomes more significant as the maturity of options increases. Moreover, leverage affects the pricing of in-the-money options more than that of at-the-money and out-of-money options. Our study is therefore useful for both asset pricing and portfolio investment in the Hong Kong market where volatility is an inherent nature of the economy.     

价值链视角下中心城市创新首位度评价与比较研究——以南京为例

基于创新价值链理论，构建创新首位度的理论内涵与评价体系，对南京和其它中心城市的创新首位度进行评价与比较。研究结果显示：①在总体首位度方面，南京位列省域中心城市排名下游，落后于西安、成都、武汉、郑州、广州等国家中心城市，自2008年以来一直落后于深圳、杭州、合肥、苏州等对标竞争城市且差距较大；②在分项首位度方面，南京的研发创新、产业创新首位度位列省域中心城市排名底端，导致南京在两个首位度矩阵中均处于C象限，创新价值链呈现严重的不均衡性；③省域中心城市普遍存在创新价值链的“漏斗效应”，即知识创新首位度＞研发创新首位度＞产业创新首位度，南京尤甚，说明技术创新过程存在大量沟壑；④拓展性研究表明，省域中心城市的创新首位度＞经济首位度＞人口首位度，但是近十年3个首位度的增速排序与上述情况相反，说明创新资源有着更强的集聚效应，应避免行政手段对创新资源的错配。最后，提出对策建议与研究展望。     

科技创新治理能力对治理绩效的影响研究

以系统论思想为指引，遵循要素-结构-功能的分析范式，从科技创新治理能力发展的水平结构和外部性结构两个方面入手，就科技创新治理能力对科技创新治理绩效的作用机理进行逻辑推演。结合中国科技创新治理体系治理能力发展现状，对治理绩效低下的形成机理进行系统探讨，结果表明：科技创新治理能力的强度结构是决定科技创新治理绩效的关键，而科技创新治理体系整体治理能力水平偏低、内部结构失衡是导致现行科技创新治理绩效低下的根源。与此同时，科技创新治理能力外溢效应在不同方向上的非对称性加剧了科技创新治理能力的结构性失衡，阻碍了科技创新治理能力的整体性提升，抑制了科技创新治理绩效有效增长。因此，应加快转变治理理念，逐步构建以“创新链”为核心的现代科技创新治理模式；增强微观治理能力，构建开放包容的科技创新管理服务体系；提升中观治理能力，实行科技创新管理机构垂直管理；优化治理环境，将知识产权法律制度环境和科技交易市场环境营造纳入科技创新管理服务体系，逐步构建与现代科技创新治理理念相匹配的科技创新管理部门地方政府官员政绩考评体系。     

战略与复杂双重维度下商业生态系统形成机理研究

基于战略和复杂双重维度，剖析阿里巴巴商业生态系统形成逻辑。结果发现：较强的战略控制力有利于强化平台商业模式，催生跨行业多样化平台，继而推进生态内信息化不断深入发展；随后，商业生态系统积蓄丰富的共享数据资源，打开资源交易和创造边界，提升生态主体能力的同时重塑生态系统属性；有着更强复杂应配力的生态主体不断探索商业模式创新，生态内外的创新扩散催化商业生态系统竞争，进一步强化复杂应配力。在核心企业战略控制力和生态主体复杂应配力的双重作用下，商业生态系统呈现前生态状态、生态内卷、生态扩散和生态共生4种不同状态。     

农民工教育与职业的匹配及其工资效应——基于城市规模视角

农民工教育与职业的匹配状况对提高劳动力资源利用、增加劳动供给质量具有重要意义。本文使用中国流动人口动态监测调查2011~2016年微观数据,基于城市规模视角分析了农民工教育与职业的匹配状况对工资效应的差别。研究发现:人口规模越大的城市,农民工教育与职业的错配比例越高;中小城市农民工教育过度对工资的影响呈现工资嘉赏效应,大城市农民工教育过度对工资的影响以工资惩罚为主;而教育不足对农民工工资则普遍存在负向影响。农民工教育与职业不匹配对工资影响的理论机制表明,中小城市支持人力资本理论模型,而大城市和特大城市则支持分配理论模型。这意味着,农民工在中小城市表现出学历越高人力资本回报越高的特点;而在大城市,教育与职业适配则更为重要。因此,改善城市层面的教育-职业的适配性,让农民工在城市劳动力市场上自由流动和工作转换,进一步增强城市间劳动力资源的流动是相关政策调节的重点。     

Antecedents of the propensity to learn management practices and their impacts on firm outcomes in emerging markets: A Bayesian Model Averaging approach

This article explores the factors that motivate firms to learn new management practices. The hypotheses are empirically tested using a representative sample of 3676 small, medium and large firms from four South Asian countries and across all main sectors of economic activity. Given that we know little about the antecedents of the propensity to learn management practices in emerging markets, the study employs Bayesian Model Averaging approach to overcome the potential issue of model uncertainty. The results reveal that market competition, resource allocation towards internal and external R&D, good quality mobile network coverage and the use of external certified financial auditors have all positive and significant effects on the propensity to learn management practices. The results also suggest that private intellectual property rights protection in the context of inefficient legal systems can deter firms from learning, perhaps in fear of legal ramifications. Finally, the study shows that firms with a higher propensity of learning management practices are more likely to become profitable while exhibiting higher levels of both potential and actual innovation.     

Paired comparison models with age effects modeled as piecewise quadratic splines

We propose new models for analyzing pairwise comparison data, such as that relating to sports. We focus on changes in players’ strengths and the prediction of future results. Our models are based on the Thurstone-Mosteller and Bradley–Terry models, and make use of the time variation in the parameters. Furthermore, we apply our models to data from the Japanese traditional sport sumo, and analyze this data. The proposed models perform better than the standard Thurstone-Mosteller and Bradley–Terry models according to both the Akaike information criterion and the Brier score. We compare the proposed models in detail by focusing on individual sumo wrestlers.